Goldman Sachs names top oil stocks amid Middle East disruptions

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs has identified five top oil stocks following recent Middle East disruptions, maintaining a constructive long-term view while raising price targets across its U.S. Majors and Canadian Oils coverage. The firm highlights opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles at $70-$75 per barrel Brent crude.

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The investment bank updated estimates to reflect recent geopolitical events, noting strong year-to-date equity performance across the sector. Goldman Sachs emphasizes companies positioned for free cash flow growth, capital returns, and operational execution.

ConocoPhillips - Goldman Sachs projects the company will deliver approximately 20-25% free cash flow per share compound annual growth rate from 2025-2030 at a long-term Brent price of $75 per barrel. The firm expects four major growth projects, including NFE, NFS, Port Arthur, and Willow, combined with approximately $1 billion in cost reductions, to generate roughly $9 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2030. Goldman Sachs notes the portfolio features lower geopolitical risk and greater OECD exposure, though some investors monitor recent Qatar LNG developments.

Chevron - The firm sees a positive long-term setup supported by high-return Upstream growth projects and cost reduction initiatives. Goldman Sachs highlights upcoming project start-ups in Guyana and the Gulf of America, plus potential upside from Venezuela, where management estimates production could increase up to 50% over 18-24 months. The bank projects at least $12 billion in share repurchases in 2026, with approximately $12.5 billion of additional free cash flow at roughly $70 per barrel Brent.

Cenovus Energy - Goldman Sachs identifies the highest total return potential among Canadian Oils, estimating peer-leading free cash flow yields in 2027-2028 driven by volume growth from West White Rose. The firm expects first oil from West White Rose at the end of second quarter 2026, with steady volume growth toward approximately 45,000 barrels per day.

Suncor Energy - Despite returning approximately 65% over the past year, Goldman Sachs remains constructive, citing the integrated business model and resilient balance sheet. The firm notes continuous improvements across the asset base, including autonomous haul trucks deployment to increase reliability and reduce costs.

Canadian Natural Resources - Goldman Sachs highlights attractive valuation with dividend yield around 4%. The firm estimates full-year production of approximately 1,632 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and notes the new free cash flow allocation policy returns roughly 60% to shareholders while net debt exceeds C$16 billion.

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